What are Tottenham Hotspur’s chances of relegation? Likelihood of drop doubles after Crystal Palace implosion
By Marko Tankosic
SME News Balkan. Tottenham Hotspur’s struggles in the Premier League have deepened after a 3–1 home defeat to Crystal Palace, leaving the North London club dangerously close to the relegation zone with just nine matches remaining in the season.
The result at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium has intensified concerns that Spurs could face one of the most shocking relegations in modern Premier League history.
Spurs’ Poor Form Raises Alarm
Under head coach Igor Tudor, Tottenham have endured a miserable run of form. The defeat to Crystal Palace means the club has now gone 11 consecutive league matches without a win, a streak that has pushed them toward the bottom of the table.
Tottenham currently sit on 29 points after 29 matches, placing them just one point above both West Ham United and Nottingham Forest.
The crisis deepened during the Palace match when defender Micky van de Ven received a red card, forcing Spurs to play more than half of the game with 10 men. Palace capitalized quickly, scoring three goals in a devastating 12-minute spell that sealed the defeat.
Opta Doubles Spurs’ Relegation Probability
According to data from Opta Sports, Tottenham’s chances of being relegated have doubled following the loss, rising from 8% to 16.1%.
Current relegation probabilities place Spurs among the clubs still battling to avoid the drop:
- Wolverhampton Wanderers – 99.9%
- Burnley FC – 99.4%
- West Ham United – 49.5%
- Nottingham Forest – 26.9%
- Tottenham Hotspur – 16.1%
- Leeds United – 8.1%
While Tottenham are not currently in the bottom three, their form suggests they are firmly involved in the relegation battle.
Worst Season Start in Decades
Statistically, this is shaping up to be one of the worst Premier League campaigns in Tottenham history.
It is the first time the club has had fewer than 30 points after 29 games, highlighting the dramatic drop in performance compared with last season.
Under former coach Ange Postecoglou, Spurs had 34 points and 55 goals at the same stage last year. This season they have scored just 39 goals, a significant decline in attacking output.
Tough Fixtures Ahead
Tottenham’s survival hopes will be tested by a demanding run of fixtures, including difficult away trips against several top clubs.
Remaining Premier League matches include:
- Liverpool FC (Away)
- Nottingham Forest (Home)
- Sunderland AFC (Away)
- Brighton & Hove Albion (Home)
- Wolverhampton Wanderers (Away)
- Aston Villa (Away)
- Leeds United (Home)
- Chelsea FC (Away)
- Everton FC (Home)
Key matches against fellow relegation contenders such as Forest, Wolves, and Leeds could ultimately determine Tottenham’s fate.
Home Form Adds to the Problem
Surprisingly, Tottenham have struggled most at home this season.
They have managed just two victories at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, producing a points-per-game average of 0.66, far worse than their away record.
Their performances on the road have actually been slightly better, with five wins and a balanced goal difference, but the remaining schedule offers little margin for error.
A Fight to Avoid a Historic Relegation
Tottenham finished 17th last season with 38 points, but at the same stage of the campaign they were in a far stronger position than they are now.
With confidence low, injuries mounting, and pressure increasing, the next nine games could define the club’s future.
If Spurs fail to turn their form around quickly, one of the Premier League’s biggest clubs could face the unthinkable drop to the Championship.
